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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.